What Is An Election Bellwether? : NPR Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. 2016 Trump. Pre-performance Lobby events. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. I think it worked out without me.. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. SACRAMENTO . Its horrible. On . Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Two states have announced recounts. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Farming also is huge here. List of election bellwether counties in the United States I hope.. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. If this thing continues, were going to be paying $6 a gallon for gas, he said. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Bremer County, Iowa Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Jim Hoft. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Theyre scared. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. Please read our comments policy before commenting. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Theres too much mishandling, she said. He isnt so sure about Biden. Today, there are also 14,183 independents registered to vote and five libertarians, according to the Ottawa Countys Board of Elections website. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Im not happy with the way things are now. Our roads need to be fixed. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. 'I Should Start Voting'. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. He is his own worst enemy.. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Its too big. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Republican Gov. Blaine County. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. He pissed off a lot of people. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. bellwether counties epoch times - crownxmas.com Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Im not happy with either party. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. We believe that there are two main reasons. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. The morale of the people up there is bad. What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Medicare is becoming a joke. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. bellwether counties epoch times In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. I find that hard to believe. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Its just stupid, she said. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 This includes personalizing content and advertising. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. About The Author. Two states have announced recounts. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. I would never vote any other way. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Theres too much corruption. Theres significant variability among them, though. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. But thats not the picture I look at. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. I think he is more for giving to the people.. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. A recent history of presidential election bellwether counties - Ballotpedia The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether

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